THE DAILY BOARD
Today’s matchups.
Shared picks, automatic games, starters, and projections.
Choose a future date to look ahead.
THE SYSTEM SELECTIONS
Official Plays 0
Official plays open on game day (Eastern). Future projections are provisional and update with the latest data.
Published official plays will appear here when they qualify. Game leans remain below.
What makes a play official?
MLB thresholds: total gap at least 1.25 runs. Moneylines need a four-percentage-point advantage over the offered price’s break-even chance and at least 5% modeled return. Run lines and first-inning estimates remain informational.
Core model inputs must be complete, statistics and ratings fetched within six hours, and the venue and schedule verified within ten minutes. Games must be at least ten minutes from starting. Qualifying total/spread prices: −140 to −100 or +100 to +180. Moneylines use −200 to −100 or +100 to +250; both team prices must be verified. Model checks must support the selected side; extreme disagreements are held for review.
MLB requires both listed starters, at least 30 season innings and three starts each, fresh pitching data, and no manual overrides.
Line freshness: up to six hours when kickoff is more than three hours away; one hour inside three hours; fifteen minutes inside the final hour. The monthly credit guard still applies. Confirm the listed line and price before using a saved selection.
Variable stakes: 0.25u–1.5u, in quarter-unit steps. The starting size rises with the projection gap relative to the sport’s threshold. Partial model agreement, missing splits, limited pitching samples, price, older quotes, and another play on the same game reduce it. Early-season football is limited to 0.75u. There is no cap on the number of qualifying plays.
One unit is your chosen stake, not a fixed dollar amount. These are transparent sizing rules, not calibrated win probabilities or Kelly stakes. The revised model and thresholds have not been backtested. Each game can qualify a total and a moneyline; refreshes preserve each saved selection’s original line, price, and stake.
EXPLORE THE SLATE
Game leans & projections
Loading matchups, starters, and model inputs…
Model calculations & sources
Revised model v2
Team run projection: 65% season, 10% last 3, 25% home/away. Each component adjusts offense against the opponent’s run allowance and the league average. Home/away rates now use matching home/away league averages, correcting the workbook’s season-average references.
Starter rating blends ERA and calculated FIP, then shrinks small samples toward the league starter average using 60 prior innings. Expected innings blend season starts (75%) with the last 3 starts (25%), bounded to 1–7. The remaining innings use the opponent’s bullpen run rate, stabilized with 100 league-average innings.
The expected staff rate replaces the opponent’s season rate; starter ERA is no longer added as if he pitches all nine innings. Missing inputs use the team-only estimate and are flagged.
Moneylines & first inning
Moneylines convert the revised run projections into win estimates using Poisson scoring, with tied outcomes split equally, and a run-ratio check using exponent 1.83. Applying that season-level relationship to a single matchup is an uncalibrated approximation. The lower estimate must exceed the offered price’s break-even chance by four percentage points and produce at least 5% modeled return. Qualification uses the actual offered price, including the bookmaker’s margin.
First-inning estimates use season (75%) and venue (25%) scoring frequencies with a bounded log-odds matchup and starter-quality adjustment. Assuming independent half-innings, NRFI = (1 − away scoring chance) × (1 − home scoring chance); YRFI = 1 − NRFI.
The original formula remains available: 40/30/30 team weights, 75% team projection + 25% opposing ERA. Its first-inning figure is an average team index.
Revised weights and probability assumptions have not been backtested or calibrated. Lineups, weather, park factors beyond home/away splits, and daily bullpen availability are not separately modeled. A total gap is a model lean, not a measured betting edge.
Automatic data
TeamRankings supplies the same four team tables used by your workbook. MLB supplies schedule, probable starters, season pitching, bullpen splits, and starter game logs. ERA may differ from the workbook’s older Razzball snapshot.
FIP calculation uses the current league constant. Sportsbooks via The Odds API: DraftKings and FanDuel are included in the free plan (500 credits/month); Caesars requires a paid plan. Prices may differ from your local sportsbook app; confirm before placing a bet.
Opening the board loads data. Auto-refresh checks matchups every five minutes while visible; team statistics refresh hourly. Sportsbook lines are reused for six hours, with at most 15 odds credits per UTC day across all sports and 465 per calendar month. Any future game date is supported. All upcoming posted lines share the same sport cache; requests require an upcoming game and a verified balance above the protected reserve. Future projections use the latest available inputs, not future statistics. Refresh cannot bypass this budget. Saved lines stay labeled. New official plays require a quote within six hours when the start is more than three hours away, one hour inside three hours, or fifteen minutes inside the final hour.